March 2, 2025 - American Public News

ITHACA, N.Y. — March is the most changeable month of the year in terms of temperature variability, and the next several days will be a prime example of that. While temperatures will struggle to hit 20 today, temperatures may reach the upper 50s by the middle of the week before sliding back to more seasonable values in time for next weekend. The biggest concern in the next seven days will be the warm temperatures and heavy rainfall Wednesday, which will raise the flash flooding risk through a combination of rain, snowpack melt-off and ice jams on rivers and streams. Brisk and cold day today with scattered lake effect snow showers continuing. Highs will stay below average Monday before turning milder Tuesday and Wednesday. A system that will produce a soaking rainfall Wednesday into Thursday could lead to some flooding concerns. #NYwx #PAwx pic.twitter.com/lSfiYaf79d— NWS Binghamton (@NWSBinghamton) March 2, 2025 Your Weekly WeatherAn Arctic high is currently sitting over the Ohio River Valley, ushered in behind yesterday’s stiff cold front. Temperatures have been in the single-digits this morning, and with gusty northwest winds in the cold sector of the high’s clockwise circulation, wind chills have been well below zero, with near overcast conditions across Tompkins County due to some clouds aloft, and lake-enhanced cloud cover closer to the surface.With those northwest winds continuing through the day, temperatures will struggle to rise much. With mostly cloudy skies and overall dry conditions, highs will struggle to hit 20 F today. The winds calm down tonight as the core of the high moves overhead, and that will stop the flow of frigid air – lows will be below normal, but not as anomalous as last night, bottoming out in the mid teens with partly to mostly cloudy skies.The core of the high shifts off the Atlantic coast later Monday, which will put Tompkins County into the rear flank of the high, and allow for warmer temperatures Tuesday on. But as that high will take time to move Monday, highs will be warmer but still below normal, in the low to mid 30s with dry, mostly sunny skies. Monday night will see increasing clouds as that southern flow also brings in some moisture and marginally less stable air. Lows will be in the lower 20s, more like mid 20s in Ithaca and along the lakeshore.A large and strong storm system winding up over the Great Plains will amplify the flow of southerly air Tuesday, as the counterclockwise low and clockwise high turn against each other like two gears in a machine. This ample flow from the south will raise temperatures substantially, with highs near 50 for Tuesday. A few light rain showers will be possible, primarily northwest of Ithaca, and it will be mostly cloudy. Tuesday night will see strong south winds build as the low strengthens and begins to move closer. More persistent rains will build in after midnight, and lows will be mild for March, around 40.Wednesday will be mild, but a washout. Strong south winds will push temperatures across Tompkins County into the mid and upper 50s. Rainfall generally looks moderate around Ithaca itself, but models do suggest heavier rain over the higher elevations of the Southern Tier and Catskills. This combination of rapid warming and substantial rainfall will risk flash flooding through the combination of melting snowpack, rapidly weakening ice on rivers/streams breaking up and creating ice jams, and the rainwater itself – the top few inches of ground are still partially frozen and it takes time to melt, so that limits the ability of rainwater to percolate down, and means greater runoff. Long story short, keep an eye out for any Flash Flood Warnings from the NWS, and check/clear your drains and stormwater grates now if you live in a flood-prone area.The rain will gradually taper off to showers after midnight Wednesday night as the low moves northwest of Ithaca. It will be another mild night for March, with lows in the upper 30s.The low should pass Ithaca’s longitude Thursday morning, which will usher in colder air on northwest winds after sunrise. Some remnant rain showers and cloudy skies will persist through the day, with morning highs in the mid 40s, sliding back into the mid 30s as those northwest winds pick up later in the day. Thursday night will see some light lake-enhanced snow showers along with blustery northwest winds. It will be mostly cloudy with lows in the mid 20s.Friday will see high pressure over the Southeast U.S. assert itself. Now, once again being a clockwise flow, but with the core further south in this case, the winds are more westerly than northwesterly. It will be colder, but close to seasonable, with partly sunny skies and highs in the lower 40s. Friday night will see a risk for some snow showers as a shortwave pulse of instability skirts eastward along the northern rim of the high, and lows will be in the mid 20s.Looking ahead into next weekend, it looks fairly unsettled, as models show the first shortwave moving out Saturday morning, only to be replaced by a second fast-moving shortwave for Sunday. Neither of these events will be big precip-makers, but some rain and snow showers will persist through the weekend. along with mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the upper 30s Saturday and mid 40s Sunday, with lows in the upper 20s both days.Graphics courtesy of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, which saw major layoffs from the DOGE job cuts this past week.Extended OutlookA major weather pattern change is expected in the medium-range, as models have keyed in on a large-scale jet stream reconfiguration that would result in a pronounced ridge over the Mississippi River Valley, and a trough over the West Coast. The prevailing pattern would result in the edge of the jet stream (and prevailing storm track) being close enough to the Great Lakes to result in slightly wetter than normal conditions for Tompkins County, but the big story would be warmer than normal temperatures, with some models suggesting well into the 50s and maybe even lower 60s as we approach mid-March.The post Weather: A rainy mid-week warmup raises flood risks appeared first on The Ithaca Voice.First published by The Ithaca Voice.