October 13, 2024

ITHACA, N.Y. — Rural hilltops of Tompkins County have already hit the “killing frost” of 28 °F, and it’s come close in some of the outlying valleys, especially last Friday morning, when temperatures fell to 29 °F at Cornell’s weather station on Game Farm Road, and 30 °F at the airport (the conditions were great for viewing auroras, but not for plants). But for Ithaca proper and the lakeshore, if we can get through the next few days, the next chance for a hard frost likely won’t be until November, as cool, showery weather gives way to a long-term warmer and drier spell.Rain will continue to move through the region today with the potential for a few embedded thunderstorms later this afternoon. Frontal boundary centers over our region today creating a large spread in temperatures this afternoon. #nywx #pawx pic.twitter.com/P3nZM9nLG6— NWS Binghamton (@NWSBinghamton) October 13, 2024 Your Weekly WeatherNoting before jump into the forecast for the upcoming, since the 1890s, in Ithaca the average date of the last hard/killing frost in April 27th, which coincidentally happens to be the last hard frost date this past spring, and the average date for the first hard frost is October 19th, so had it dropped just a touch cooler last Thursday night into Friday, it would have been a short-than-usual growing season in the city of gorges.However, for those in the warmer enclaves of Tompkins County who are trying to keep your fall flowers blooming a little longer, you should be in luck. It will certainly be cooler than usual with an upper-air cold pool rotating across the region through the first half of the week, in a counterclockwise dance with a surface low pressure storm system. This will not only result in cooler-than-normal temperatures, it will also make the environment more favorable for clouds and showers because colder air aloft makes the atmosphere more unstable by creating a greater temperature change with height (technically known as the “lapse rate”). The trade-off, however, is that moisture and cloud cover keep temperatures from falling as much overnight, by increasing the relative humidity (higher dewpoint, which the air temperature cannot be lower than), and the insulating effect of the clouds. Right now, the lowest temperatures in Ithaca and along the lake appear to be mid 30s this week, and assuming the air doesn’t suddenly become still and the sky opens up just enough to cool it further, that means a hard frost should be avoidable in urban Ithaca and along most of Cayuga Lake for now.For the record, a few wet flakes may mix in at out highest spots like Connecticut Hill this week, but generally, snow looks very unlikely for most of Tompkins County. (And that’s A-OK with me.)For the rest of your Sunday, the core of the surface low will continue to move eastward and then northeastward across the region. It will be damp and chilly, with highs struggling to make it out of the 40s. Tonight will be cloudy with a few showers, and the damp, cloudy air will only fall back to the low 40s for lows. New rainfall amounts through sunrise Monday will be around 0.25″.It will be a cool and unsettled Monday as the low moves northeastward across New England, but the cold pool and northwest winds result in cloudy skies and some lake enhanced showers across the areas. Highs will only be in the mid to upper 40s. Monday night will be mostly cloudy with scattered showers and lows in the upper 30s. New rainfall amounts will be light Monday, <0.1″ for most areas.A few more breaks in the cloud sheet Tuesday will allow temperatures to perk up, around 50 for highs. However, winds should turn back from north to northwest again Tuesday night, which will reinvigorate cloud cover and produce some light rain showers overnight. Lows will be in the mid to upper 30s.An area of high pressure will begin to push into the area from the southwest late Wednesday. Right now it looks like the cold pool should hang around for one more day, with showers, cloudy skies and highs in the upper 40s. But showers should come to an end by late evening, with partial clearing overnight. Lows will be in the mid 30s.The core of the high pressure moves overhead for Thursday. A dry, mostly sunny and milder day is expected, with highs in the mid 50s. But the calm air and mostly clear skies will likely make Thursday night the coldest night of the week, with lows in the mid 30s overnight. As the ground will still be moist, the dewpoint should remain high enough that only patchy light frosts are expected. The strong high remains overhead for Friday, if not a little further east. Southerly flow into the area, with ample sunshine, should result in a pleasant day with highs in the mid 60s. Friday night will be perfect for radiational cooling however, with mostly clear skies and lows in the upper 30s.Peering into next weekend, the forecast looks mild and dry, as the high remains in place. A few clouds may move in Sunday as a shortwave skirts to Ithaca’s northeast across ENY and Western New England. Highs will be in the upper 60s with lows in the low 40s both Saturday and Sunday.Graphics courtesy of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.Extended OutlookAs mentioned at the start of this report, a warmer long-term spell is in the cards as we head into the end of the month and Halloween. A broad ridge in the jet stream with move eastward with that high later this week, and remain in place for some time. This will result in warmer than normal conditions for late October. The channeling of continental air from our southwest will also result in slightly drier than normal conditions for Tompkins County during this period. Early indications show this pattern continuing through Halloween, though to caution, average temperatures drop rapidly this time of year, so what’s normal right now is a few degrees above normal just a week later.The post Weather: Cool & showery, but warmer & sunnier late week appeared first on The Ithaca Voice.

Weather: Cool & showery, but warmer & sunnier late week

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