Helene saved its name for a more worthy storm.The circulation center that came ashore in the Carolinas last week did not quite earn a tropical moniker, saving the “H” name in the National Hurricane Center’s 2024 tropical cyclone name list for a storm currently swirling through the Gulf of Mexico that may become a major hurricane — Category 3 or stronger with sustained winds at least 111 mph — before making landfall on the Gulf Coast of Florida late Thursday.We will focus on potential effects for Cardinal News’ coverage area of Southwest and Southside Virginia in this weekly weather column, but let’s not lose sight that depending on how strong this storm becomes, and how populated of an area it strikes, this could become a catastrophe of destructive winds and monstrous storm surge for a section of the Florida Panhandle or eastward toward the state’s Big Bend where the land curves south into the Sunshine State’s defining peninsula. You can follow the latest information on Helene via the National Hurricane Center web page linked here.Forecast rainfall map for Helene. Courtesy of NOAA.For Virginia, the primary effect, not surprisingly, will be the potential for widespread rainfall of 2-6 inches, locally more, through Saturday morning. This will be particularly focused on Thursday night and Friday across the state’s southwest quarter, which basically defines Cardinal News’ coverage area — south of Interstate 64, west of Charlottesville, Farmville and the John H. Kerr Reservoir/Buggs Island Lake, loosely. The rest of the state may well see many 1- to 3-inch amounts, perhaps excluding the Eastern Shore and some other eastern fringes.There may be at least some gusty winds, especially in higher elevations, capable of blowing some trees down or causing sporadic power outages, and a slight chance of a few tornadoes spinning up in some of the rain bands, seeing as the commonwealth will be in the northeast quadrant of the storm’s rotation where those more commonly occur.But the most concerning effect is the potential for flooding, as the rain will be falling on top of much wetter soil in most parts of our region than we had most of the preceding summer, and more sudden flash flooding if faster rain rates of an inch or two per hour, or more, develop.Forecast track for Helene. Courtesy of National Hurricane Center, NOAA.Once inland, Helene is expected to make an unusual curve to the northwest rather than continuing to track north or northeast as the remnant circulations of most landfalling hurricanes along the Florida Gulf Coast do. An upper-level low circulating near the Mississippi River to our west is expected to tug the storm center to the northwest.At first glance, this might seem as if it would spare Virginia a lot of heavy rainfall, but there are some reasons that will likely not be the case.· Helene is not a point or small circle, but rather a broad mass of cloudiness and rain, and that breadth will increase once the intense circulation around the eye withers some as it moves inland.· Helene’s old center of circulation is still expected to make a fairly close pass to the southwest tip of the state as it tracks northwest through the eastern half of Tennessee.· North and east of the storm’s center, deeply saturated air off the Atlantic Ocean will be pulled west and northwest into Virginia, lifting and condensing into rain as it glides uphill toward the Appalachians, where it will lift more sharply.· We will have some lingering atmospheric boundaries from a prior week of intermittent rain along which moisture can condense into showers and storms. In fact, some of the rain before Friday’s closest approach of Helene’s center will be indirectly related to the tropical circulation, as its counterclockwise flow banks moisture against both the mountains and a stalled front, perhaps qualifying as a “predecessor rain event” that often occurs hundreds of miles north of a tropical system.The effect may be that Helene effectively develops two centers after landfall — the old circulation center pulled west by the upper-level low to the west while a mass of rain moves more northeastward into Virginia.The circulation of the upper-level low and the remnant circulation of Helene may even do a rare atmospheric dance called the “Fujiwhara effect” in which they seemingly rotate around each other for a short time until the dominant circulation — which is the upper-level low, not Helene — absorbs its partner.While heavy rain bands on Friday are expected to reduce in coverage and intensity to more intermittent showers over the weekend, we may not be done with Helene’s ghost until sometime next week, as the upper-level low containing much of her remains drifts eastward.By that time, we will have spent over two weeks pondering a potential, actual, or former Helene.A thunderstorm unleashed rainfall near Hollins north of Roanoke on Thursday evening, Sept. 19. Photo by Kevin Myatt.Mixed fortunes on rainAs we approach the possibility of substantial to possibly excessive rainfall over the next several days, Cardinal News’ large core region of coverage from the Cumberland Gap to Cumberland County and from the North Carolina and Tennessee state lines to Interstate 64 (roughly) has widely varying tolerances for such rainfall.Going back to last week, locations along and east of the Blue Ridge saw significant rain of multiple inches as the remnant circulation of PTC8 situated to our southwest and, for a couple days, rotated abundant Atlantic moisture against the mountains. That moisture condenses into clouds and rain as it glides uphill from sea level toward the mountains, then does so more sharply as it encounters the sudden lift of the Blue Ridge.This map shows rainfall totals across the region from Monday, Sept. 16, to Wednesday, Sept. 18. For geographical clarity, Roanoke (R), Lynchburg (L), Danville (D) and Bristol (B) are marked. Amounts drop off west of the Blue Ridge, where a “rain shadow” effect occurred with easterly and southeasterly winds blowing upslope on the Blue Ridge and squeezing out higher rain totals there. The color key for rain maps is in the next map scrolling down the page. Courtesy of National Weather Service.This map shows additional rainfall from thunderstorms on Thursday, Sept. 19. Courtesy of National Weather Service.West of the Blue Ridge, rain amounts tended to be less last week. Some parts of Southwest Virginia near the Tennessee state line got higher amounts because of (1) an early westward-circulating arm of PTC8 and (2) a second-day line of storms that tended to stall near the Virginia-Tennessee and Virginia-North Carolina line for a while.But the “rain shadow” west of the Blue Ridge was very real in parts of the New River Valley and northward along the western tier of counties in our state, with many locations seeing less than an inch of rain. Last week’s U.S. Drought Monitor map did not really capture any significant changes in the dryness because the data for the Thursday-issued map closed off before the bulk of the rain last Tuesday and Wednesday, Sept. 17-18. But with that data included in its issuance this Thursday, it probably will show improvement along and east of the Blue Ridge with areas of moderate drought hanging on to the west.The contrast between photos of the same section of Roanoke River in Salem between Monday, Sept. 16, above, and Wednesday, Sept. 18, below, shows the effects of 2-4 inches of rain with some locally higher amounts in the Roanoke Valley area from the inland effects of what had been Potential Tropical Cyclone 8. Courtesy of Doug Griggs.Courtesy of Doug Griggs.Additional showers and storms occurred Thursday (Sept. 19) and Saturday (Sept. 21) with very streaky results — flooded downtown Roanoke streets on Thursday, similar in Lynchburg on Saturday, while others not far away from either city got very little — before somewhat more organized rounds of showers and storms began moving in from the west in association with slow-moving fronts early this week.This week has seen intermittent periods of rain with more streaky results, though much of it has been focused on some of the western areas that got lighter rain last week.Thunderstorms organize south of Lexington on Thursday, Sept. 19. Photo by Dwayne Yancey.We are at the point where a large enough portion of our region is soggy enough that we will no longer presume flooding to be minor or sporadic if we get multiple inches of rain as expected with Helene.We should also hope that our neighbors in West Virginia and Ohio who are in extreme to exceptional levels of drought get at least an inch or two from coming rains with Helene and the trailing upper-level low.Ominous lowerings mark a shelf cloud with a severe thunderstorm moving through Appomattox County on Saturday, Sept. 21, part of the same complex that resulted in flooded Lynchburg streets and a nearly 5-hour delay for the Liberty-East Carolina football game. Courtesy of Toby Wright.Football floodFor the second September in a row, a home football game involving an NCAA Division I university in Cardinal News’ coverage area was delayed for multiple hours because of training thunderstorms dumping a narrow band of rain directly over the stadium.Liberty University’s home game with East Carolina was stopped due to lightning at 6:08 p.m. Saturday evening. It did not resume until 10:45 p.m. and finished at 2:30 a.m. with a 35-24 Liberty victory.That might bring back some memories of Virginia Tech’s home game with Purdue on Sept. 9, 2023, which was stopped for 5½ hours by a series of thunderstorms that dumped over 4 inches of rain, some scoreboard-damaging hail, and spooky lightning striking all around soaked fans leaving the stadium. Purdue eventually won the scheduled noon kickoff game under the lights, 24-17.The purple colors depict where over 3 inches of rain was estimated by radar over Lynchburg on Saturday evening, Sept. 21. Courtesy of RadarScope via George Flickinger, WSET (Channel 13).Liberty’s game was delayed almost 5 hours with over 3 inches of rain falling on the Liberty University campus, as reported by WSET (Channel 13) meteorologist George Flickinger. Much like at Virginia Tech in 2023, the campus was the bullseye for the heaviest rain in the region that day as storms tended to backbuild just when it looked like they might move on.Also, quite fittingly, Virginia Tech’s home game with Rutgers — a 26-23 loss for the Hokies — saw no rain on Saturday, just as Liberty’s home game with New Mexico State had only a drop of rain (.01 inch) when Lane Stadium was getting drenched in Blacksburg last year.Severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings were issued at various times for the Lynchburg tempest, which resulted in flooded streets and flooded basements.Going into Saturday, locations north and east of Roanoke were considered to have a marginal risk of severe storms, and that’s exactly where they formed in a spotty manner during the afternoon and evening as an upper-level disturbance slid southeastward ahead of a slow-moving cold front in the Ohio Valley. One storm moved over Charlottesville, but the University of Virginia was on the road beating Coastal Carolina.So, while there being a thunderstorm over Lynchburg shouldn’t have been a total surprise given the forecast, there simply was no way to know exactly where storms would form hours in advance and that, once again, they would line up over a stadium seating thousands of fans for multiple hours.Be weather aware, football fans.Late-day sun illuminates cumulus clouds on the horizon after two days of intermittent rain on Wednesday, Sept. 18. Courtesy of Tina Gibson.Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley. Sign up for his weekly newsletter: Sign up The post The real Helene steps up, poses heavy rain threat for Virginia appeared first on Cardinal News.First published by Cardinal News.