The results are in: Kari Lake and Ruben Gallego will go head-to-head as the Republican and Democratic party candidates seeking to represent Arizona in November’s election for one of the state’s two U.S. Senate seats.
Former news anchor and Trump-endorsed candidate Lake won the Republican Senate primary on Tuesday, beating out three other candidates with 55.4% of the votes tallied by Wednesday morning in her favor. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb was the runner-up in that election, with 39.2% of the vote.
Longtime politician and U.S. military veteran U.S. Rep. Gallego ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.
Michael Norton won the Green party primary with 61% of the vote. He was not supported by the Green Party, who endorsed a write-in candidate.
Now, Arizona voters’ choice for the Senate seat could determine which political party will control the U.S. Senate.
The seat up for grabs is currently held by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who left the Democratic Party and is not seeking reelection.
While the primary election was to pick candidates to represent specific political parties, independents who chose to vote in the primary election could request and obtain a Democratic or Republican ballot by mail or in person. Independents are the second-largest voting bloc in the state, with 34% of registered voters, according to Arizona’s Secretary of State.
‘What could possibly happen next?’
Lake and Gallego offer two starkly different visions for how they will represent Arizona in the nation’s highest legislative body.
Lake has made immigration and border security a cornerstone of her campaign, promising to hire thousands of additional immigration judges, further narrow the allowances for people seeking asylum and requiring immediate deportation for anyone crossing into the United States outside of formal ports of entry. Lake does not support a federal ban on abortion, but says she hopes women choose to carry pregnancies to term, and proposed financial support for expecting mothers.
Gallego has promised to support access to reproductive healthcare, social safety net programs like Medicaid and Social Security, and to fight any effort to erode democratic institutions. On immigration, Gallego has said he would push for more border enforcement alongside increased funding for border communities.
On Monday, he launched a campaign effort called #JuntosConGallego to highlight his support from Latino leaders and community members. Latinos are the largest group of non-White voters in Arizona, with 25% of Arizona’s eligible voters identifying as Latino according to a 2024 analysis by the Pew Research Center.
Recent polling shows a tight race with Gallego often, but not always, in the lead. A July 22-23 poll of swing state voters by The Hill and Emerson College, a private university based in Boston, showed that among the 800-some Arizona voters, Gallego led Lake by 46% to 42%. An internal Lake campaign poll of 513 voters by J.L. Partners (and obtained by National Review) gave Lake a 1-point lead over Gallego.
Gallego will continue into the election with a substantial fundraising cache: Gallego for Arizona has raised $32 million in 2023 and 2024, according to Federal Election Commission records. Kari Lake for Senate had raised $10 million, according to FEC records that covered a similar time period.
Along with gaining the votes of independents, how supporters of Lamb will vote in the Senate election could also help shift the race to one candidate.
Lamb ran on promises to invest in border militarization and promoted the Constitutional Sheriff movements lobbying for local jurisdiction over state and federal laws. He received 39.2% of the vote, with 240,877 voters casting a ballot in his favor. As of Wednesday morning, Lamb had won the majority of votes reported in Pinal County, where he has served as sheriff since 2016.
How candidates spoke about the security of elections was crucial for one voter who cast a ballot against Lake at a South Tucson polling location on Tuesday.
Credit: John Washington
David Elliott, in a John Deere hat and matching green shirt, told Arizona Luminaria this election is “maddening.”
“What could possibly happen next?” Elliott said.
He said he came to vote against Lake, who has rejected the results of elections deemed fair and transparent by multiple judicial orders.. “If she weren’t an election denier, I would have voted for her,” he said. “But she’s a crybaby, so I voted against her.” He said she probably will win, but thinks it’s important to send a message.
The race could also be upended if current Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, one of Arizona’s two U.S. senators, is chosen as a running mate for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Harris must still go through the formal party nomination process but has already been endorsed by President Joe Biden and a number of political heavyweights.
Kelly would be allowed to maintain his seat as a U.S. senator during a run for vice president. If Kelly is elected or resigns, Gov. Katie Hobbs would appoint a replacement of the same political party, a Democrat, until the election of Kelly’s replacement in the next general election, according to Arizona statute.